Ruminations on the 2008 GOP Nomination

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Huckabee not a one state wonder

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Those of you who think that Mike Huckabee is a one-state wonder or that he will not last long in the primary campaign are in for a rude awakening.   Some bloggers have mentioned that Huckabee will have to expand his base beyond the Christian Conservatives if he is to have a chance to win the GOP nomination.   I disagree. Huckabee does not really need to expand his evangelical base that much to win the nomination.   A McCain victory in New Hampshire, which is appearing to be more and more likely, will further weaken Romney allowing Huckabee who is currently only one point behind Romney in Michigan to win there and possibly force Romney out of the race.   Huckabee will then ride the evangelicals to victory in South Carolina and force Thompson out.   That will leave McCain and Giuliani splitting the Anti-Huckabee vote on Feb 5th.  This will give Huckabee a decided advantage on Feb 5th.    With Thompson & Romney out before Feb 5, Huckabee wins Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Colorado largely riding the strength of the evangelicals.  Rudy will win New Jersey, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, Massachusetts, and Maine.    McCain wins Arizona, Utah, and maybe Alaska.   That leaves California, Illinois, Missouri and Minnesota up for grabs with Huckabee having the advantage that the rest of the GOP base (non-evangelicals) will split their votes between McCain and Giuliani Such a result would force McCain from the race leaving only Huckabee and Giuliani standing.   What are the next big events?    Feb 9: Louisiana and Kansas –> Both Huckabee wins riding evangelical votes After that?  Feb 12 Rudy will win Maryland & DC, but Huckabee will probably win Virginia due to the evangelicals. After that? March 4th: Texas & Ohio are Huckabee victories riding evangelicals, Rudy wins Vermont & Rhode Island which are insignificant wins compared to Texas & Ohio. The point is simple.   Huckabee CAN win the nomination without expanding his base too much beyond the evangelicals.   He will church hop to the GOP nomination only to get trounced in the general election. There is a reason that the GOP is strong in the south:  Evangelicals.   He will ride them to the GOP nomination and a subsequent Goldwater sized defeat.  Voting for Huckabee might send a message to the GOP party, but it will also hand the Democrats the Presidency.       

Given his victory in Iowa, it now might be too late to stop him.   When this process started it was the social values conservatives who were split and couldn’t find their man.   Well they have found him in Mike Huckabee.   However, the Anti-Huckabee vote is now split.   Romney and Thompson will split those social conservatives who will not support Huckabee allowing Huckabee to force them out early.   Then Giuliani and McCain will be left to divide the anti-Huckabee vote between them that will force McCain out.   That will leave a choice between Giuliani and Huckabee.   Social conservatives who will not support a pro-choice/pro civil unions type candidate will be forced to vote for Huckabee just possibly handing him the nomination over Giuliani.

Huckabee should not be underestimated.   He can and just might ride the evangelical vote all the way to the GOP nomination.


Written by hollywood66

January 4, 2008 at 7:28 pm